Is Poker Luck? Cracked Pocket Aces Says Yes!
I often find myself asking, “is poker luck?” (talking strictly about No Limit Texas Hold’em here).
I mean it seems like it all depends on the cards that are turned over.
But back to the question at hand: “Is poker skill or luck?” — or what combination of each?
Let’s talk about “getting lucky” for a moment…
Having good luck in poker is not (necessarily) something you can control ( unless you believe in NLP 😉 ).
When it comes to changing your luck at poker, you could stop playing hands when you notice that you’re not getting good cards or if people keep getting lucky and “bad-beating” you.
Here are some examples from the recent (2009) World Series of Poker (WSOP) of where pocket aces were cracked.
Examples of Lucky Poker (Cracking AA)
Pocket Aces getting Cracked
Actually, Lon McEachern and Norman Chad (the WSOP commentators) mentioned that it takes more than pocket aces to make the final table.. and they are right!
1) Begleiter has Jack 9 of diamonds and raises to 450k. Lamb, sitting next to Begleiter, has pocket aces and raises it to 1.1 million. Begleiter is feeling lucky, so he calls.
The flop comes 5, Jack, 9 – Begleiter has Jacks up. He slow plays his two pair by checking to Lamb, who raises 1.5 million. Begleiter pushes all in and gets the call.
The turn and river are no help to Lamb, so his pocket aces were cracked!
The odds went like this (Begleiter/Lamb): Preflop (20/80) – Flop (75/25) – Turn (82/18)
So you can see, Begleiter was LUCKY enough to win when he only had 20% chance of doing so! Is poker luck? – that situation suggests it is!
2) Robbins raised with pocket aces, but didn’t raise enough because Akenhead raised all in pre-flop with K Q off suit. Robbins calls, and they flip the cards over.
Akenhead only had a 13% chance to win preflop, but when the flop came KJQ, his two pair put him at a 62% chance to win (that means Robbins still has a 38% change of winning this hand). But the next two cards that come out are blanks for Robbins and his pocket aces were cracked by two pair.
So Akenhead was having good poker luck because he turned his 13% into 62%, whereas Robbins couldn’t do anything with his 38%!
3) Robbins now doesn’t have many chips left, so when he gets pocket 10’s, he pushes all in. Cada has pocket aces, so he calls instantly.
Preflop, Robbins only has a 21% chance of winning (or splitting the pot). Flop comes 6, K, 2 rainbow – and now Robbins only has a 9% chance. The turn is a 5, and now Robbins only has a 5% chance of getting a 10 on the river to win the pot.
Is poker all luck? – Well when you go all in pre flop and are already behind in the hand, yes, poker is all luck at that point!
Guess what.. a 10 comes on the river and Robbins wins the hand to stay alive! It takes more than pocket aces to make the final table (or to win a hand in general!).
Being Good at Poker Involves Skill
These examples of where people are getting lucky and beating pocket aces are rare, I do admit that.
There are many hands played in every tournament or cash game – and some of them come down to someone getting really fortunate – but there is some skill involved too.
Raising to represent that you have a big hand can often scare your opponents away, even if they have the best hand (your raise makes them believe they are beat). Knowing when the other player is bluffing or doesn’t have the best possible hand takes skill, and practice is the only way to gain that skill.
But if someone asked “is poker luck?” – I would tend to say yes. I think it is more luck than skill, especially when you are very skilled yourself and are playing with people that are equally as skilled.
What do you think? Are you a poker player who knows something about the game? Comment below..
Government Invasion of Privacy – Are They Watching Us?
Have you seen the Will Smith movie: “Enemy of the State”? Government invasion of privacy is a definite possibility, and some would argue that it’s already happening.
How about the movie “Eagle Eye”? Is the government watching you? How do you find out if you’re on a government watchlist?
Legitimate questions. What’s the answer? – My theory is that the government is watching me, or us, or everyone?! Honestly, I’m scared.
Here is what I think when I think about the possibilities of government invasion of privacy:
1) Any electronic or digital data
This includes credit card and bank transactions, postal address changes, mortgage notes… oh wait, pretty much EVERYTHING is made into a digital document – right?!
Ok, so everything is electronic, but does the government have access to that information and those databases?
Let’s imagine they do, let’s imagine they can access pretty much any server or data they want (with good reason)… wouldn’t that mean they could pretty much track you down whenever they wanted.
Assuming you don’t purposefully try to hide your tracks, using cash all the time, not registering anything in your name – it should be pretty easy for the government to find you right?
Even if you think you’ve kept yourself out of the federal and/or corporate databases.. there is still….
2) Phone privacy – Wiretapping
What’s the deal with phone wiretapping? Can the phone companies record any conversation you’re having at the flick of a switch? Even worse, does the government have access to that? I don’t know the constitution very well, but don’t we have “freedom of speech”?
I guess there has to be a line drawn somewhere, because no one wants terrorist or criminals to freely plan their next attack – but where is that line? When does government invasion of privacy cross that line?
Do you trust pay phones?
I’m going to assume, since phones have been around for so long, that wiretapping pretty much any cell phone or land line is very easy for the government to do – and since they are the government, they can do whatever, whenever they want.
Ok, so you don’t use credit cards or banks – you rent from someone who doesn’t claim the income – and you don’t use any type of phone… I’m sure you’ve thought about….
3) Video Camera Surveillance
There are video cameras everywhere. And if you’ve seen “Eagle Eye”, you know that if the government have any level of access to any percentage of video cameras active out there – that would be the biggest invasion of privacy ever.
Any nice office building has cameras, as do all federal buildings – both on the inside and out. And you know the 7-11s and Royal Farms now are video tape surveillance. There is very little space
In my opinion, there is no way around it. No matter where you look, the feds can look into your life. Whether it be through video cameras, phone wiretapping, or electronic records, the government can gain access and find you!
Do you believe that the government invasion of privacy is real? What’s your theory or opinion?
Go from Government Invasion of Privacy back to Question Your Theory home page
Difference Between Vegetarian VS Vegan
I recently learned what a vegan is – and it sounded very similar to what I knew about vegetarians. So now I wonder, what’s the difference between vegetarian vs vegan?
Here is what I know from talking to people and searching the web: Vegetarians don’t eat meat, poultry, or fish. So basically, they don’t eat animals right?
(I love the joke — “Will a vegetarian eat an animal cracker?” – hahaha that’s such a good question!)
A vegan will not eat anything that is a by product of an animal. That is, they won’t eat meat, poultry, or fish, like a vegetarian, but they also won’t eat eggs, milk, cheese, etc.. anything that comes from an animal.
So the difference between vegetarians vs vegans is that vegans are hardcore vegetarians in that they have a more restricted diet.
Reason to Become Vegetarian or Vegan
In order to verify my theory that vegetarians are fake, let’s look at the reason(s) that one would become a vegetarian or vegan.
The main reason I can think of to become a vegetarian is because you believe in animal rights. So, you don’t like how cows, chickens, and fish are treated when they are bred to be eaten by humans.
That’s fair, I understand that – animal rights is a good argument…
HERE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VEGANS AND VEGETARIANS and WHERE I GET MAD @ Vegetarians: If you REALLY believe in animal rights – then shouldn’t you be against the way cows and chickens are treated when they are bred and raised for their by products (milk and eggs – and cheese which comes from milk).
So when I see a vegetarian eating an egg, I tell them that they are fake and don’t really have real morals or values!
Vegans on the other hand, are hardcore, strict vegetarians who wholeheartedly believe in animal rights. I respect these people.
My theory is that you cannot just be a vegetarian, because there is no reason to be ONLY a vegetarian. The difference between vegetarian vs vegan is huge, they are completely different things!
How do you feel about that? Feel free to comment.
What is my BMI? – Does BMI Really Matter?
BMI (body mass index) is a calculation which takes your height in feet and inches, as well as your weight in pounds, and gives you some random number.
What is my BMI? – I’m a 25.8 – over weight (go to http://www.nhlbisupport.com/bmi/ and type in 5’7″ / 165) But BMI really mean anything?
Well according to the calculation, if your number is less than 18.5, then you’re UNDER weight.
Between 18.5 and 24.9 is NORMAL weight
Between 25 and 29.9 is OVER weight
and you’re considered OBEASE if your BMI is above 30.
Guess what my body fat percentage is… <5%… would you call me over weight?
The truth is, I work out often, and with heavy weights – so I have a lot of muscle. Oh yeah, and I started playing soccer at age 5, so my legs are definitely more muscular than your average 25 year old.
I’m in shape, body looks good, and couldn’t be healthier – but my BMI says I’m fat. I don’t thinks so.
My theory is that BMI isn’t always right – and it doesn’t really mean anything. Ok, it has some merit, it gives you a general idea of where you should take your body.
So next time you ask “What’s my BMI?” – don’t thnk too much of it or read too much into it.
Cook or Eat Out – What to do!?
Have you ever wondered: should I cook or eat out tonight?
There cannot be a theory on which choice to make every time because there are always at least two uncontrollable variables… how many or which factors you are considering in your decision, and how you value those factors.
What factors do you consider when trying to make your decision?
Health
Well, there are relatively healthy fast food options right? Take Chick-Fil-A’s salad with light Italian dressing for example (a lot of sodium – as with any fast food).
There is no question that cooking some fresh food from the grocery store is the healthier option.
So to cook or eat out… Cook gets 1 point!
Read more